From this distance you have a 50% chance of hitting the green
You’re standing in the fairway, 7-iron in hand, eyes locked on the flag. You know you’re going to stick this shot close... except, reality sets in about two seconds later when your ball veers right and rolls off into the bunker. Sound familiar?
Yeah, we’ve all been there.
But here’s the thing—when it comes to hitting greens, we often overestimate our range. (Don’t worry, you’re not alone.) According to Arccos, we now know the “magic number”—the distance from which different skill levels, on average, hit the green 50% of the time. And let’s just say, you might be reaching for a wedge more often than you think.
What’s Your Magic Number:
20 Handicap: 50% of greens are hit from 92 yards. So, if you're a 20-handicapper, you're hitting the green half the time from inside 100 yards. (Which, by the way, isn’t bad at all!)
15 Handicap: You’ve got a 50/50 shot from 110 yards. It’s your sweet spot! Keep it dialed from 110 yards and in and slowly work your way back.
10 Handicap: From 129 yards, you're in the zone half the time. Time to become best friends with your wedges.
5 Handicap: 147 yards is your magic number, which means you’ve mastered those mid-irons. Keep doing you.
Scratch Golfer: From 165 yards, you're hitting the green as much as the rest of us are from 100. That's wizard-level stuff.
What Does This Actually Mean for Your Game though?
First off, let’s set some realistic expectations. If you’re a 15-handicapper who thinks you're going to hit greens consistently from 150 yards, you might want to rethink that approach. The data tells us you’re more accurate from around 110 yards. So maybe, instead of swinging for the fences, and going for a guarded green surrounded by hazards from 150, snuggle it up for an easy up and down.
That said, not every golfer fits perfectly into these buckets. Some 20 handicappers might be absolute snipers with their wedges, while some 10 handicappers may still struggle to stick greens from 130. These numbers reflect averages based on Arccos data—but every golfer’s game is unique. That’s why it’s so important to know your game, understand where you shine, and where you could use a little extra work.
Golf can be a humbling game of unrealistic expectations. We’re all guilty of standing over a 180-yard shot thinking we’ve got this, only to send it into the trees or worse, the water. So, armed with this new look, here’s how to sharpen up your course management:
Play to your strengths: If your best shot at hitting the green is from 110 yards, then plan your game to get to that distance more often. Lay up when you need to, and stop chasing those miracle shots that rarely pay off. It’s the smarter play, and it’ll keep those big numbers off your scorecard.
Practice where it counts: Rather than smashing drivers at the range, why not start focusing on the shots that matter most? If you’re consistently better from 92 yards or 129 yards, dial in your practice sessions to fine-tune those distances. Those are the ones that can save your round.
Learn from your own data: Have you ever noticed that certain shots just feel easier than others? That’s no accident—it’s often tied to your strengths at particular distances. Whether you’re tracking your performance with tech or just paying more attention, learning from your own tendencies will help you make smarter decisions on the course.
One of the coolest things about golf? It’s one of the only sports where, no matter your skill level, you can technically hit a shot as well as a tour pro. Think about it—you might not be outdriving Rory, but there’s nothing stopping you from sticking an approach shot closer than a pro from 165 yards.
And these days, it’s easier than ever to know exactly how your approach shots stack up. With our New Feature, PGA TOUR Quality Approach, you can compare your shots to TOUR Pros. Comparing your stats to the pros might sound intimidating, but it’s eye-opening and surprisingly motivating. You never know.
Next time you’re standing in the fairway, take a moment to think about your magic number. And when you're ready to make that friendly bet with your buddy on who can hit the green, keep your distances in mind. Hopefully, the odds will be in your favour…!
